Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
