Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
